The Patriots and Jets meet for the 111th time since 1960, when the Pats biggest rival was known as the Titans and actually played their games in New York. The two teams appear to be headed in opposite directions: the Jets have lost five straight while the Patriots have won four of their last five, including two in a row by a combined score of 80-39.

 

The Jets offense is abysmal (see any of the many stats below), and the difference in turnover differential (Jets -9, Patriots +7) after just six games is alarming. New York has a a decent offensive line, but there is nothing about their offense that would lead one to believe that they can get much of anything accomplished against the Pats, even without Jerod Mayo.

If the Jets can win this game – or at least keep it close – it will be because of their defensive front seven. Mo Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Damon Harrison, Quinton Coples, Calvin Pace, David Harris and Demario Davis have the ability to wreak havoc against a New England offensive line that has been inconsistent this year, and is now without RB Stevan Ridley and probably Dan Connolly as well.

Still, the New England offense has found a groove of late, and as expected the Jets secondary that is now without Dee Milliner (IR – Achilles) has been extremely vulnerable – no more so than in the red zone, where they have allowed opponents to score 72% of the time.

While the Patriots have scored 27 or more points in five of their last six games against alleged defensive mastermind Rex Ryan and his Jets, I am still a bit leery of backing the Patriots to cover such a big spread with a game so soon after the losses of Mayo and Ridley. On the other hand, having watched the Jets this year, there is no way I would take them, even with double digits. The Patriots will win; the only question is by how much.

 

Team Records: Patriots 4-2; Jets 1-5

Last Five Games: Patriots 4-1; Jets 0-5

Last Two Games: Pats 2-0, outscoring opponents 80-39; Jets are 0-2, having been outscored 62-17

Home/Away: Patriots have won five straight at Gillette; Jets are 1-6 in last seven road games

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Turnovers – Per Game Averages and League Ranks
Giveaways: Patriots 5 (T-7th); Jets 10 (T-23rd)
Takeaways: Patriots 14 (T-1st); Jets 3 (T-30th)
Differential: Patriots plus-9 (T-1st); Jets minus-7 (T-29th)

Penalties per Game: Patriots 9.0 (31st); Jets 7.3 (20th)
Penalty Yards per Game: Pats 87.7 (32nd); Jets 66.7 (24th)
Opponent Penalties: Patriots 5.5 (30th); Jets 6.2 (24th)
Opponent Penalty Yards: Pats 52.0 (24th); Jets 60.0 (14th)

 

Offense – Per Game Averages and League Ranks

Points: Patriots 26.7 (11th); Jets 16.0 (30th)
Yards: Patriots 349 (17th); Jets 303 (30th)
Plays: Patriots 67.8 (5th); Jets 64.3 (17th)
Yards per Play: Pats 5.1 (25th); Jets 4.7 (32nd)
First Downs: Pats 20.3 (19th); Jets 17.2 (30th)
Third Down Conversions: Pats 5.7 (T-14th); Jets 5.3 (21st)
Third Down Percentage: Pats 38.2% (22nd); Jets 37.6% (24th)
Time of Possession: Pats 30:55 (9th); Jets 28:17 (22nd)

Passing Yards: Pats 239 (15th); Jets 182 (32nd)
Completion Percentage: Pats 63.4% (19th); Jets 55.5% (31st)
Passer Rating: Patriots 97.3 (11th); Jets 67.4 (31st)
Gross Yards per Pass: Pats 7.0 (22nd); Jets 5.6 (32nd)
Net Yards per Attempt: Pats 6.6 (20th); Jets 5.2 (32nd)
Touchdown Passes: Patriots 11 (T-8th); Jets 6 (T-30th)
Interceptions: Patriots 2 (T-3rd); Jets 7 (T-24th)
TD-Interception Differential: Pats +9 (T-5th); Jets -1 (T-30th)
Completions: Patriots 22.8 (14th); Jets 19.5 (27th)
Incompletions: Patriots 13.2 (14th); Jets 15.7 (30th)
Sacks Allowed: Patriots 13 (T-18th); Jets 15 (T-23rd)
Sack Yardage Lost: Pats 79 (18th); Jets 93 (23rd)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 110 (18th); Jets 121 (12th)
Yards per Rush: Patriots 3.7 (25th); Jets 4.5 (10th)
Rushing First Downs: Pats 5.7 (T-16th), Jets 5.7 (T-16th)

Yards per Point: Patriots 13.1 (4th); Jets 18.9 (29th)
Points per Play: Patriots .393 (12th); Jets .249 (31st)
Red Zone Chances: Patriots 3.3 (T-14th); Jets 3.0 (22nd)
Red Zone Scores (TD): Pats 1.8 (T-15th); Jets 1.2 (T-27th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: Pats 55.0% (21st); Jets 38.9% (30th)

 

Special Teams

Field Goals Made: Patriots 16 (1st); Jets 9 (T-14th)
Punting Gross Yards: Patriots 46.1 (10th); Jets 48.1 (5th)
Punting Net Yards: Patriots 39.8 (25th); Jets 46.4 (1st)
Opponents FG Made: Patriots 10 (T-18th); Jets 8 (T-8th)
Opp Gross Punting: Patriots 45.6 (18th); Jets 45.2 (16th)
Opp Net Punting: Patriots 40.7 (17th); Jets 43.2 (25th)

 

Defense – Per Game Averages and League Ranks

Points: Patriots 21.5 (11th); Jets 26.3 (25th)
Yards: Patriots 319 (5th); Jets 327 (6th)
Plays: Patriots 61.3 (9th); Jets 64.0 (15th)
Yards per Play: Pats 5.2 (7th); Jets 5.1 (5th)
First Downs: Pats 19.7 (12th); Jets 18.7 (5th)
Third Down Conversions: Pats 5.2 (10th); Jets 7.0 (31st)
Third Down Percentage: Pats 43.7% (20th); Jets 46.7% (25th)
Time of Possession: Pats 29:05 (9th); Jets 31:43 (22nd)

Passing Yards: Patriots 209 (3rd); Jets 235 (15th)
Completion Percentage: Pats 61.5% (12th); Jets 64.7% (21st)
Passer Rating: Patriots 84.3 (9th); Jets 109.2 (30th)
Gross Yards per Pass: Pats 6.9 (8th); Jets 7.4 (18th)
Net Yards per Attempt: Pats 6.4 (8th); Jets 6.8 (13th)
Touchdown Passes: Patriots 10 (T-17th); Jets 15 (T-31st)
Interceptions: Patriots 7 (T-5th); Jets 1 (T-30th)
TD-Interception Differential: Pats minus-3 (T-11th); Jets minus-14 (32nd)
Completions: Patriots 20.0 (T-4th); Jets 22.3 (17th)
Incompletions: Patriots 12.5 (19th); Jets 12.2 (23rd)
Sacks: Patriots 15 (T-7th); Jets 19 (T-2nd)
Sack Yardage: Pats 99 (T-6th); Jets 130 (T-1st)

Rushing Yards: Patriots 111.0 (14th); Jets 92.2 (8th)
Yards per Rush: Patriots 4.2 (18th); Jets 3.5 (6th)
Rushing First Downs: Pats 5.7 (16th); Jets 4.8 (9th)

Yards per Point: Patriots 14.9 (17th); Jets 12.4 (30th)
Points per Play: Patriots .351 (15th); Jets .411 (26th)
Red Zone Chances: Patriots 3.3 (16th); Jets 3.0 (11th)
Red Zone Scores (TD): Pats 1.8 (13th); Jets 2.2 (27th)
Red Zone TD Percentage: Pats 55.0% (16th); Jets 72.2% (30th)

 

Odds

The Patriots opened as 8½ point favorites, and within an hour it was up to nine. The spread kept climbing to as high as 10½ before settling at 9½ at most venues, though some are still at 10.

The point total has dropped from 47½ to as low as 44 based on predictions for a heavy rainfall. Memories of last year’s game at Cincinnati certainly bring some concern due to the weather forecast, though at least the wind (9-14 mph) should not be a factor.

The current money line ranges from +350 to +425 for the Jets with an average of +400; for New England the range is -450 to -550 with an average of -500.

Patriots are 3-3 against the spread this season; Jets are 0-5-1 ATS in 2014.

Pats are 8-2 ATS in their last ten home games; Jets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

 

Pick • Patriots 27, Jets 16
Patriots -9½
under 45

 

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