By The Numbers: A Statistical Preview of the New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens

Here is a statistical breakdown of the Patriots and Ravens, heading into their week 16 game at M&T Bank Stadium. The stats underlined in green heavily favor the Patriots, while those in red italics favor the Ravens.

Once again the game between these two will be strength versus strength (New England’s offense versus Baltimore’s defense) and mediocrity versus mediocrity (the Patriot defense versus the Raven offense).


Will the Ravens use CB Jimmy Smith on Julian Edelman, or keep him outside?
(USA TODAY Images)

 

Turnover differential: Pats 10th (+6), Ravens 17th (-2)
Special Teams DVOA: Pats 3rd (+6.0%), Ravens 2nd (+7.6%)
Penalty yards differential per game: Pats 2nd (+17.4), Ravens 4th (+16.2)

 

Offense

Points per game: Pats 6th (26.4), Ravens 25th (21.1)
Yards per game: Pats 8th (391), Ravens 29th (310)
3rd down efficiency: Pats 15th (38.5%), Ravens 17th (37.1%)
Red Zone (TD) efficiency: Pats 15th (55.2%), Ravens 28th (48.9%)
Yards per play: Pats 11th (5.4), Ravens 30th (4.6)
Yards per drive: Pats 8th (33.2), Ravens 28th (26.1)
Yards per point: Pats 15th (14.8), Ravens 14th (14.7)
Points per drive: Pats 8th (2.16), Ravens 24th (1.57)
Three and out: Pats 3rd (17.5%), Ravens 30th (28.1 %)
Offensive DVOA: Pats 3rd (+22.4 %), Ravens 31st (-22.8%)
Turnovers: Pats 12th (19), Ravens 17th (22)

Passing yards per game: Pats 6th (272), Ravens 20th (227)
Yards per pass attempt: Pats 18th (7.0), Ravens 29th (6.6)
Completion percentage: Pats 15th (60.9), Ravens 21st (58.8)
Passer rating: Pats 14th (88.1), Ravens 27th (76.4)
TD-Interceptions: Pats 10th (+13, 23:10), Ravens 25th (+1, 18:17)
Sacks-yardage lost: Pats 13th (37-235), Ravens 25th (42-282)
Passing DVOA: Pats 8th (27.2%), Ravens 25th (-5.1%)

Rushing yards per game: Pats 12th (118.3), Ravens 29th (82.9)
Yards per carry: Pats 16th (4.21), Ravens 32nd (3.04)
Stuffed (loss or zero gain): Pats 6th (7.4%), Ravens 25th (10.8%)
Rushing DVOA: Pats 9th (+3.0%), Ravens 32nd (-29.1%)

 

Defense

Points per game: Pats 10th (22.2), Ravens 7th (19.8)
Yards per game: Pats 24th (373), Ravens 9th (334)
3rd down efficiency: Pats 29th (43.4%), Ravens 3rd (32.4%)
Red Zone (TD) efficiency: Pats 21st (58.1%), Ravens 4th (42.9%)
Yards per play: Pats 14th (5.3), Ravens 13th (5.2)
Yards per drive: Pats 19th (30.7), Ravens 3rd (25.8)
Yards per point: Pats 8th (16.8), Ravens 5th (16.9)
Points per drive: Pats 10th (1.70), Ravens 6th (1.53)
Defensive DVOA: Pats 23rd (+7.3%), Ravens 4th (-13.4%)
Turnovers: Pats 11th (25), Ravens 19th (20)

Passing yards per game: Pats 18th (240), Ravens 13th (232)
Yards per pass attempt: Pats 13th (7.0), Ravens 16th (7.1)
Completion percentage: Pats 4th (57.3), Ravens 3rd (56.9)
Passer rating: Pats 9th (83.2), Ravens 11th (83.9)
TD-Interceptions: Pats 18th (-10, 24:14), Ravens 19th (-10, 22:12)
Sacks-yardage lost: Pats 10th (40-265), Ravens 12th (38-243)
Passing DVOA: Pats 16th (+5.3%), Ravens 10th (-5.1%)

Rushing ypg: Pats 31st (132.5), Ravens 7th (102.4)
Yards per carry: Pats 25th (4.44), Ravens 5th (3.81)
Stuffed (loss or zero gain): Pats 28th (6.7%), Ravens 22nd (8.0%)
Rushing DVOA: Pats 26th (2.1%), Ravens 8th (-14.8%)

 

All-time the Patriots are 7-3 versus the Ravens, going 6-1 in the regular season and 1-2 in the playoffs. Over the last few games some of the stats are not so pronounced (or favorable). For example, over the last three games the Patriot defense has allowed 75% of their opponents drives in the red zone to result in a touchdown – and the Baltimore defense is at 100%! On offense the Pats have actually been better (63.6%) in the red zone than they have been year long (55.2%), while Baltimore’s 40% success rate during that span is the third lowest in the NFL. While the Ravens have won four in a row and five of their last six, statistically speaking they have not been overly impressive during that stretch. The Patriots of course have lost two of their last five games and since the bye have lost a bit of their luster; the club has actually been outscored in those games (albeit by only one point). Perhaps most disconcerting is that over the last three games the Patriots gave given up an average of 419 yards per game; only Minnesota and Green Bay have allowed more.

 

 

 

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