Week 14 NFL Games - Previews and Predictions

John Morgan

Dec 7, 2013 at 12:00pm ET

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There are plenty of quality football games this week highlighted by the Saints-Panthers and Seahawks-Panthers games. Don't overlook some of the other games with major playoff implications: the outcome of the Colts-Bengals, Lions-Eagles, Rams-Cardinals, Dolphins-Steelers and Giants-Chargers games will also have a great deal to do with the final playoff seedings.

Cleveland Browns (4-8) at New England Patriots (9-3)
Early game on CBS; Bill Macatee and Steve Tasker

Does Bill Belichick still get any extra satisfaction when beating Cleveland? (USA TODAY Images)

Despite Gordon's performance, the Browns have lost six of their last seven since Brian Hoyer's season ended. In the last three games Cleveland has been outscored by 34 points in the first half and has given up a total of 100 points in those games. Last week was the not to be unexpected letdown game for the Patriots, against Houston after having played Carolina and Denver. Don't expect a repeat of the upset that Cleveland managed to pull off three years ago.

Pick • Patriots 31, Browns 23 ✔
Browns +12½ ✔
over 44½ (one unit) ✔ +100
Final Score: Patriots 27, Browns 26 ... Cleveland covers by 11½ ... over by 8½

Carolina Panthers (9-3) at New Orleans Saints (9-3) ★★★★★
Sunday night on NBC; Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth

With a pair of meetings between these two over the next three weeks, NFL fans are in for a treat as we get to see who rules the NFC South and gets a first round bye, and which team will have to work from a wild card spot. Carolina introduced themselves to the nation when they defeated the Patriots on Monday Night Football three weeks ago, and now they are at full strength with DE Charles Johnson (knee), RB DeAngelo Williams (quad), TE Ben Hartsock, and OLB Chase Blackburn (foot) healthy and ready to go. The panthers have won eight in a row, and are allowing a league-best 13.1 points per game; that's ten points less than the league average, and 2.4 points better than the vaunted Seattle defense.

The Saints however are nearly unstoppable at home with Drew Brees and Sean Payton. New Orleans is 6-0 in the Superdome, averaging over 33 points per game while outscoring opponents 199-95. In those six games Brees has thrown 19 touchdowns against just three interceptions, with a 122.2 passer rating. The crowd noise and the fast track should be the difference - just barely - for this game.

Pick • Saints 20, Panthers 17 ✔
Panthers +3½ ✘
under 46½ (two units) ✔✔ +200
Final Score: Saints 31, Panthers 13 ... New Orleans covers by 14½ ... under by 2½

Seattle Seahawks (11-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-4) ★★★★★
Late game on FOX; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman

While the media will focus on the two young quarterbacks, the spotlight should be on two superb defenses and running games. The Seattle gets a boost with the reported return of CB Brandon Browner, but San Francisco may have trouble with their rushing attack. OT Joe Staley and G Mike Mike Iupati are banged up, which has made things tough for RB Frank Gore; in the last three games he is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and 46 yards rushing per game. The Niners were really able to get after Russell Wilson last time these two met, limiting him to 8-19 with a pick and three sacks - yet they still lost by 26. It may be a bit much to ask for a repeat performance now that Seattle has their starters back on their offensive line.

Both teams are playing much better ball than earlier in the season, as injuries have healed and key players have become healthier. The Seahawks however are playing on a whole separate level than the rest of the NFL, and they will be out to prove that their prowess goes beyond the home field advantage they enjoy at the CLink. While San Francisco is also out to make a statement in what is their biggest game since last year's Super Bowl, I just can't go against Seattle - even on the road - with the way they are playing right now.

Pick • Upset: Seahawks 23, 49ers 20 ✘
Seahawks +3 ✔
over 41 ✘
Final Score: 49ers 19, Seahawks 17 ... Seattle covers by 1 ... under by 5

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4) ★★★★
Early game on CBS; Greg Gumbel and Dan Dierdorf

The winner of this game is in the driver's seat to secure the #3 seed in the AFC, with the loser most likely hosting the Chiefs in the first round. The Colts have not looked sharp lately, having lost two of their last four - with those two losses by a combined score of 78-19 to teams that would not make the playoffs if the season ended today. Andrew Luck was sacked five times last week by the Titans, and the Bengals have 18 sacks in their last five games, while allowing less than 5.3 yards per pass attempt during that time. The Cincy run defense is quite effective as well, allowing 4.0 yards per carry (11th) and 101 yards per game (8th). Though Donald Brown (5.3 yards per carry) is an improvement over the benched Trent Richardson, the Bengals should be able to take away the run and make the Colts one dimensional on offense.

On offense Cincinnati has been quite effective with Giovani Bernard complimenting BenJarvus Green-Ellis in the running game, opening up a slew of options in the playbook for OC Jay Gruden. The Colts have not been proficient at ll in stopping the run, ranking 29th in yards per game (129) and 24th in yards per carry (4.4); eventually that will open up play action passes for Brandon Weeden to AJ Green (72 receptions, 1103 yards, 7 TD) and the rest of the Cincy receiving corps.

Pick • Bengals 27, Colts 17 ✔
Bengals -5½ ✔
over 42½ ✔
Final Score: Bengals 42, Colts 28 ... Cincinnati covers by 8½ ... over by 17½

Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5) ★★★★
Early game on FOX; Kevin Burkhardt and John Lynch

The Lions have been a bit of a tease this year, alternating wins and losses with just a pair exceptions: one two-game winning streak, and one two-game losing streak. The much maligned Detroit defense came through on Thanksgiving, forcing three turnovers while recording a safety and seven(!) sacks. For once it was the defense bailing out the offense, as the Lions turned the ball over three times. That makes nine giveaways in the last two games, twelve in the last three, and 17 in their last five games - not exactly a hallmark of a playoff team. The Philly defense may be a cure for that though: their pass defense ranks last (297 yards per game) and overall they are giving up a 31st-ranked 412 yards per game. Detroit will surely attempt to exploit that soft pass defense early and often with deep passes to Calvin Johnson. Nick Foles is now just one short of the NFL record of 20 touchdowns without an interception, an amazing feat for any player much less for a guy who was a third string QB not all that long ago.

The Philadelphia offense is the only one in the NFL with both a 1,000-yard receiver and a 1,000-yard rusher, and they are 8th in scoring (25.0), 3rd in yardage (403.6 per game), 2nd in rushing (147 yards per game) and 9th in passing (257 yards per game). Detroit's defense on the other hand has excelled against the run (3.7 yards per carry, 83 yards per game); however, stopping LeSean McCoy and the Eagle offense is an immense task. Even though the Eagles have won four straight, it's tough to get beyond that porous defense of theirs to pick them for another victory.

Pick • Upset: Lions 24, Eagles 23 ✘
Lions +3 ✘
under 54½ ✔
Final Score: Eagles 34, Lions 20 ... Philadelphia covers by 11 ... under by ½

Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6) ★★★★
Monday night on ESPN; Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden

QB Josh McCown has been exceptional in the six games he has played in, and will get his fifth start of the season. McCown has completed 0ver 63% of his passes in all but one game and has thrown nine touchdowns with just one pick this year, averaging just a hair under eight yards per pass attempt. He and Alshon Jeffrey, who went for an incredible 249 yards receiving last week, have developed a very nice chemistry. Jeffrey now ranks 4th in the NFL with 1,109 yards receiving, and he and McCown will be licking their chops as they go up against a Dallas defense that ranks last in total yards (422), 31st in passing yards (295), and 25th in yards per pass (7.7).

The problem for the Bears is that their 2013 defense is nothing like we have grown accustomed to seeing the past few years. Chicago is actually giving up more points per game (27.7, 28th) than Dallas, and the Cowboys will receive a major boost with the return of LB Sean Lee; their D took a noticeable nosedive in his absence. While the Bears are still very good at forcing turnovers (23, 7th best), they just can't seem to stop a nosebleed. With so many of their quality starters (Lance Briggs, DJ Williams, Henry Melton, Peanut Tillman, Nate Collins) on defense, Tony Romo, RB DeMarco Murray (3 TD last week) and WR Dez Bryant (9 TD) should be too much for McCown and the Bears to overcome

Pick • Upset: Cowboys 31, Bears 28 ✘
Cowboys +1½ ✘
over 48 (one unit) ✔ +100
Final Score: Bears 45, Cowboys 28 ... Chicago covers by 15½ ... over by 25

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7) ★★★
Early game on CBS; Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts

Mike Wallace seems to have finally grasped the concept of the Miami offense, catching 12 passes for 209 yards and two TD in the last two weeks. Good timing, as he returns to Heinz Field for the first time, going opposite Antonio Brown (85 receptions, 1103 yards, 6 TD), who has far outperformed him this season. Neither team is particularly effective running the ball, and neither team is particularly effective stopping the run - though it looks as if the Steelers will get a boost with the return of RB Le'Veon Bell (concussion).

Can the Dolphins put consecutive winning efforts together for the first time since September? Even though the Steelers are beat up in some positions and flawed in others I just don't think the Dolphins have what it takes to win critical games on the road in December. The last time Miami won in Pittsburgh the quarterbacks were Dan Marino and Bubby Brister; that streak should continue Sunday. The caveat to that is how much of a distraction Mike Tomlin's sideline blocking controversy has been. Not a strong feel either way with this game; I'll take the Steelers at home rather than the Dolphins up north in December.

Pick • Steelers 23, Dolphins 20 ✘
Dolphins +3½ ✔
over 40 ✔
Final Score: Dolphins 34, Steelers 28 ... Miami covers by 9½ ... over by 22

Tennessee Titans (5-7) at Denver Broncos (10-2) ★★★
Late game on CBS; Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

Tennessee not only has the unenviable task of playing on the road for the third straight week (something that should never happen, in my opinion), but they also have to do so against the team with the league's best record. Denver has the return of John Fox, but I often find in 'celebration' games (e.g., a game honoring a former player to the club's ring of honor) that teams lack focus and don't perform all that well. After consecutive games at San Diego, at New England, and two against the Chiefs, the Broncos could be emotionally and physically spent. Meanwhile for Tennessee their backs are up against the wall: not only do they need this to stay in the playoff picture, it is their regular season Super Bowl against a 10-2 team.

The Tennessee pass defense (213 yards per game, 7th) is arguably the best Denver will have faced this season; they are one of only five teams to have more interceptions than touchdowns (8, 1st in the NFL) allowed. Last week Tennessee limited Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 160 yards passing and sacked him five times - though Manning and his quick release poses a separate set of challenges. How close this game will be will ultimately decided by QB Ryan Fitzpatrick against a suspect Denver pass defense. Which Fitzpatrick shows up: the one that turned the ball over four times last week, or the one that threw five touchdowns and zero picks over the previous three games?

Pick • Broncos 24, Titans 20 ✔
Titans +13 (one unit) ✘ -110
under 50 (one unit) ✘ -110
Final Score: Broncos 51, Titans 28 ... Denver covers by 10 ... over by 29

St. Louis Rams (5-7) at Arizona Cardinals (7-5) ★★★★
Late game on FOX; Dick Stockton, Ronde Barber

Carson Palmer has built a very good rapport with Larry Fitzgerald (55 receptions, 9 TD) and Michael Floyd (54 receptions, 860 yards) after floundering early in the season for Arizona, and Andre Ellington (6.0 yards per carry) and Rashard Mendenhall have improved a Cardinal running game that has been abysmal for what seems like forever. The Cardinal defense, led by LB Daryl Washington, continues to impress. Arizona lost a critical game last week at Philadelphia thanks in part to some questionable calls, and now needs to win their first division game since week one of 2012; they have lost eight straight NFC West games since then.

After a terrible start to the season the Rams defeated the Colts and Bears to place themselves on the cusp of the NFC playoff picture, before losing to San Francisco last week. RB Zac Stacy is averaging 96 yards rushing over the last five games, but QB Kellen Clemens is completing less than 52% of his passes since taking over the starting duties from Sam Bradford, and to make matters worse center Scott Wells is out. St. Louis can get after the quarterback, as DEs Robert Quinn and Chris Long having combined for 19½ sacks this season. Doing so could aggravate an elbow injury Palmer suffered, which may have led to two picks last week. The Cardinals however do enjoy their home cooking: they are 5-1 in Phoenix this year and won the last three games by a combined score of 94-48. I would expect their defense to force a mistake or two by Clemens that should make the difference.

Pick • Cardinals 27, Rams 23 ✔
Rams +6½ ✘
over 41½ ✘
Final Score: Cardinals 30, Rams 10 ... Arizona covers by 13½ ... under by 1½

New York Giants (5-7) at San Diego Chargers (5-7) ★★★
Late game on FOX; Kenny Albert and Daryl Johnston

This game pits two teams that are barely holding onto playoff hopes, with the loser all but mathematically eliminated. The Giants should feel about both their passing and running games against the Charger defense. Although San Diego ranks 13th in scoring (23.1 ppg), they are 29th in yards (397), 28th in passing yards (269), 31st in yards per pass (8.4) and below average in rushing defense. The Giants however cannot afford to spot San Diego a 14-point lead like they did against Washington. San Diego has a deep and talented offense, and Philip Rivers (70% completions, 23 TD/9 INT, 319 yards per game) could torch the Giants D; he and this offense is far more prolific than any that New York has faced in any of their victories.

This is another game where one team has not defeated the other in ages: the last time the Giants beat the Chargers the quarterbacks were Danny Kanell and Ryan Leaf. While the Chargers have lost four of their last five, it should also be noted that was in the midst of a five game stretch with four road games - and the only home game was against the Broncos. During the recent 4-1 surge by the Giants on the other hand, they played four out of five at home. In the game featuring two quarterbacks who were traded for one another in 2004, thanks in part to the cross country trip Rivers and the Chargers should rebound and come out on top.

Pick • Chargers 27, Giants 24 ✔
Giants +3½ ✘
over 47 ✔
Final Score: Chargers 37, Giants 14 ... San Diego covers by 19½ ... over by 4

Minnesota Vikings (3-8-1) at Baltimore Ravens (6-6) ★★
Early game on FOX; Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick

Adrian Peterson leads the NFL with 1,208 rushing yards (which is more than ten NFL teams have rushed for this year), so reports of his demise are very premature. In two of their three victories Peterson has rushed for over 140 yards, but between Haloti Ngata, Arthur Brown, and Chris Canty, Baltimore has a good chance to keep him in check; the Ravens are allowing only 3.7 yards per carry (5th in the NFL) and 100 yards rushing per game (6th). Matt Cassel is expected to start in place of the concussed Christian Ponder, which is good new for Viking fans: Cassel appeared in all three of Minnesota's victories this year. Cassel can be very effective and Baltimore's pass rush did not get to Ben Roethlisberger last week, despite the fact that the Steelers entered the game having given up the 4th most sacks in the NFL. The Vikes have lost only one of their last four games after a 1-7 start, in large part thanks to an improved defense. Over the last three games opponents have converted an NFL-low 24% of their third down attempts; for the season Minnesota has allowed 44% of third down attempts, second worst in the league. The Vikings biggest obstacle may be themselves. Minnesota has a minus-9 turnover differential (4th worst), and their 24 total giveaways are also the fourth most in the league.

Baltimore's biggest obstacle may be themselves as well, as this has the earmarks of a classic letdown game. The Ravens are 3-1 over the last four games, just defeated a bitter rival, and looking ahead they face three playoff teams (Lions, Patriots, Bengals). Even so, the Ravens are just so much better at home (5-1) than the Vikings are on the road (0-5-1), that I just can't see Baltimore not winning.

Pick • Ravens 27, Vikings 17 ✔
Ravens -6 ✘
over 41 ✔
Final Score: Ravens 29, Vikings 26 ... Minnesota covers by 3 ... over by 14

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9) ★★
Early game on CBS; Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots

Whether it is because his knee was not fully healed when the season began or because of protection issues, Robert Griffin has not been the same player he was a year ago. Even so, Washington's biggest problem is not Griffin, it is their defense. Last week they couldn't stop Andre Brown and the Giants in the 4th quarter; here come the Chiefs, who have scored 66 points in their last two games and racked up 452 yards of offense last week.

While it is possible that Kansas City could be in for a letdown after their second game against Denver, I believe Andy Reid will have the club ready as they are still only a game behind the Broncos. I wonder how many Native Americans will be at this game? Even though it's a long road trip, KC should be able to end their three-game slide against the soft Washington defense. When the Redskins have the ball KC may not stifle them as much as the 49ers did two weeks ago, but it should be enough to get out of Landover with a victory. The Chiefs are 4-1 on the road; they have already proven that they can win away from Arrowhead.

Pick • Chiefs 27, Redskins 17 ✔
Chiefs -2½ ✔
under 45 ✘
Final Score: Chiefs 45, Redskins 10 ... Kansas City covers by 32½ ... over by 10

Oakland Raiders (4-8) at New York Jets (5-7) ★★
Early game on CBS; Marv Albert and Rich Gannon

Both teams failed to capitalize on golden opportunities to place themselves in the middle of the AFC playoff picture in week 13: The Raiders lost on Thanksgiving after racing to a 14-point lead over Dallas, while the Jets lost their third straight in a lethargic blowout at home to Miami. Oakland RB Rashad Jennings rushed for 448 yards in November, but the Jets are still stout against the run: their defense leads the league with 2.9 yards per carry and 77 yards per game allowed. If the Raiders can't run the ball, it may be asking too much of Matt McGloin to carry the offense in his 4th NFL start.

So how can a team that has lost twice as many games as they have won, traveling across three time zones for an early game with a green quarterback, be expected to win? The quick and easy answer is that Rex Ryan has decided to start Geno Smith rather than have him watch from the sidelines and gain some perspective. Of the 35 NFL quarterbacks with enough passes to qualify, Smith ranks last in passer rating, 33rd in completion percentage, and leads the league in interceptions - which is remarkable when you consider the season Eli Manning has had. The Jets have scored a total of just 20 points in their last three games, rank 29th in yards per play (4.82), 31st in both yards (304) and points (15.8), and are dead last in three and outs (32.3%). Their defense forces fewer turnovers than any other team (9) while the offense turns the ball more often (29) than all but one team, which earns them an NFL-worst minus-18 turnover differential. I expect the Jets to be the gift that keeps on giving, with Oakland being this week's lucky recipient.

Pick • Upset: Raiders 27, Jets 17 ✘
Raiders +3 ✘
over 39½ ✔
Final Score: Jets 37, Raiders 27 ... New York covers by 7 ... over by 24½

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1) ★
Early game on FOX; Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick

Who would have guessed when the season began that both of these clubs would have a losing record entering this game? Not the schedule makers or networks, who originally had this lined up to be the marquee Sunday night game. The Packers have not won one of their five games without Aaron Rodgers, and he won't be playing this week either. The Falcons had to go to overtime, but they finally broke their five-game losing streak at Buffalo despite allowing Matt Ryan to be sacked six times. Stevan Jackson is still averaging less than four yards per carry, but at least his usage (147 yards the last two games) keeps defenses honest and helps to open up the passing attack. Green Bay's rushing defense has been exposed, as they have allowed 189 yards per over the last four games. Even if Tony Gonzalez (toe) cannot play, the Falcons should be able to get back-to-back wins for the first time this year.

Pick • Upset: Falcons 24, Packers 20 ✘
Falcons +3½ ✔
over 41 ✔
Final Score: Packers 22, Falcons 21 ... Atlanta covers by 2½ ... over by 2

Buffalo Bills (4-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-9) ★
Early game on CBS; Spero Dedes and Steve Beuerlein

Two teams that continually find ways to lose close games square off in a meaningless game featuring rookie quarterbacks. Tampa Bay and Buffalo (along with Houston) have blown leads in an NFL-worst seven of their losses, and Tampa Bay has lost five games by eight points or less. During their three game winning streak the Bucs did a much better job of protecting the ball, and they are now 4th in the NFL with a plus-10 turnover differential; untimely turnovers did them in however last week. LB Lavonte David and S Keith Tandy both have interceptions in back-to-back games, but the Bucs continue to lead the league in penalty yards against.

E. J. Manuel has been efficient since his return, throwing four touchdowns with only one pick. The Bills run the ball well (4.2 yards per carry, 139 yards per game) and the Tampa Bay defense needs to improve in that regard (140 yards per game over the last three games), but Buffalo's rushing defense (4.2 yards per carry, 122 yards per game) hasn't been anything special this year either. Another tough game to predict, but let's not place too much emphasis on the last game considering the disparity of opponents (at Carolina and home versus Atlanta); maybe too much time enjoying the warm weather and the clubs on Dale Mabry will do Buffalo in.

Pick • Bucs 24, Bills 20 ✔
Bucs -3 ✔
over 42 ✘
Final Score: Bucs 27, Bills 6 ... Tampa Bay covers by 18 ... under by 9

From Thursday:
Houston Texans (2-10) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9) ★
Pick • Upset: Jaguars 27, Texans 24 ✔
Jags +3 ✔
over 43½ (one unit) ✔ +100
Final Score: Jaguars 27, Texans 20 ... Jacksonville covers by 10 ... over by 3½

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Tale Of The Tape

Week 13 Results

Straight Up: 12-4, 75%
Underdogs to win straight up: 4-2, 67%

Against the Spread: 9-7, 56%
ATS picking favorites: 3-2, 60% (2-0, +300)
ATS picking underdogs: 6-5, 55% (3-1, +190)
ATS Confidence Picks: 5-1, 83% (+490)
One Unit Plays ATS: 4-1, +290
Two Unit Plays ATS: 1-0, +200
Three Unit Plays ATS: none
Four Unit Plays ATS: none
Five Unit Plays ATS: none
770 risked, net +490; +63.6% ROI

Over Under Total: 5-11, 31.3%
Picking Over: 2-6, 25% (1-1, -10)
Picking Under: 3-5, 38% (1-1, -10)
O/U Confidence Picks: 2-2, 50% (-20)
One Unit Plays O/U: 2-2, -20
Two Unit Plays O/U: none
Three Unit Plays O/U: none
Four Unit Plays O/U: none
Five Unit Plays O/U: none
440 risked, net -20; -4.5% ROI

Money Line: none

Best Play of the Week: correct (FSU -28½ at Florida); +300

3-Game Teasers: none
3-Game Parlays: none
4-Game Parlays: none

College Games: 4-1 (one unit: 2-1, +90; two unit: 1-0, +200; three unit: 1-0, +300; money line: none); 880 risked; net +590; +67.0% ROI

Week 13 Grand Total:
10-5
2090 risked
net +1060
+50.7% ROI

Season Totals

Straight Up: 131-60-1 (69%)
Underdogs to win straight up: 22-17 (56%)

Against the Spread: 91-94-7 (49%)
ATS picking favorites: 46-48-6, 49% (21-20, -450)
ATS picking underdogs: 45-46-1, 49% (13-8, +480)
ATS Confidence Picks: 34-28, 55% (+30)
One Unit Plays ATS: 21-14, 60% (+560)
Two Unit Plays ATS: 10-10, 50% (-190)
Three Unit Plays ATS: 1-2, 33% (-360)
Four Unit Plays ATS: 1-2, 50% (-480)
Five Unit Plays ATS: 1-0, 100% (+500)

Over Under Total: 95-97 (49%)
Picking Over: 51-45, 53% (16-12, +530)
Picking Under: 44-52, 46% (13-14, -300)
O/U Confidence Picks: 29-26, 53% (+230)
One Unit Plays O/U: 19-16, 54% (+140)
Two Unit Plays O/U: 7-9, 44% (-580)
Three Unit Plays O/U: 2-1, 67% (+270)
Four Unit Plays O/U: 1-0, 100% (+400)
Five Unit Plays O/U: none

Money Line: 2-0-1, +860

Best Play of the Week: 9-3, 75% (+2100)

3-Game Teasers: 8-6 (+610)
3-Game Parlays: 4-6 (+1520)
4-Game Parlays: 0-1 (-110)

College Games: 50-18-1, 74%; net +5415

Grand Total:
156-86-2 (64.5%)
35,110 risked
net +8,555
+24.4% ROI

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