Here is a look at almost all of the playoff scenarios in the AFC as we head into Week 16 of the 2012 NFL season.

  • The Texans, Broncos, Patriots and Ravens have clinched a playoff spot
  • The Texans, Broncos and Patriots have clinched their respective division titles
  • The Jets, Bills, Browns, Chargers, Titans, Raiders, Chiefs and Jaguars are all eliminated from the playoffs
  • The Bengals and Steelers both could win either win the AFC North, make the playoffs as a wildcard, or miss the playoffs entirely
  • The Colts have about a 99% of making the playoffs, and about a 1% chance of not making the playoffs
  • The Dolphins have about a 1% chance of making the playoffs, and about a 99% chance of not making the playoffs

 

12-2 Houston Texans – remaining games vs Vikings, at Colts
Clinched AFC South; can be the #1, #2, or #3 seed

Can clinch #1 seed and first round bye with either:

Win vs either Vikings or Colts
Loss by Patriots, plus loss by Broncos

Can clinch at least #2 seed and first round bye with either:

Loss by Patriots
Loss by Broncos

Can be eliminated from #1 seed with either:

Losses to both Vikings and Colts, plus Patriots win both games
Losses to both Vikings and Colts, plus Broncos win both games

Can be eliminated from #2 seed (and become #3 seed) with:

Losses to both Vikings and Colts, plus Patriots win both games, plus Broncos win both games

 

11-3 Denver Broncos – remaining games vs Browns, vs Chiefs
Clinched AFC West; can be the #1, #2 or #3 seed

Can clinch #1 seed and first round bye with:

Wins vs both Browns and Chiefs, plus Texans lose both games

Can clinch at least #2 seed and first round bye with either:

Wins vs both Browns and Chiefs
Patriots lose both of their games
One win, plus one loss by Patriots

Can be eliminated from #1 seed with either:

Loss to either the Browns or Chiefs
Texans win vs either the Vikings or Colts

Can be eliminated from the #2 seed (and become the #3 seed) with either:

Wins by Patriots vs both the Jaguars and Dolphins, plus a loss to either the Browns or Chiefs
Losses to both the Browns and Chiefs, plus at least one win by the Patriots vs either Jaguars or Dolphins

 

10-4 New England Patriots – remaining games at Jaguars, vs Dolphins
Clinched AFC East; can be the #1, #2, #3 or #4 seed

Can clinch the #1 seed and first round bye with all of the following:

Win vs both Jaguars and Dolphins, plus
Texans lose to both Vikings and Colts, plus
Broncos lose at least one game, vs either Browns or Chiefs

Can clinch the #2 seed and first round bye with any of the following:

Win vs Jaguars and Dolphins, plus Broncos lose at least one of their games
Broncos lose both of their games, plus Pats win at least one game
Win vs both Jaguars and Dolphins, and Texans lose both of their games

Can clinch the #3 seed with any of the following:

Win vs both Jaguars and Dolphins
Ravens losses to both Giants and also Bengals
One win vs either Jaguars or Dolphins, plus one Ravens loss to either Giants or Bengals

Can be eliminated from the #1 seed and home field throughout with any of:

Loss to either the Jaguars or Dolphins
Texans win vs either the Vikings or Colts
Broncos win vs both the Browns and also the Chiefs

Can be eliminated from the #2 seed and first round bye with any of the following:

Losses to both the Jaguars and also the Dolphins
One loss to either the Jags or Dolphins, plus one Broncos win
Broncos win both of their games, plus Texans win at least once

Can be eliminated from the #3 seed (and become the #4 seed) with either:

Losses to the Jaguars and also the Dolphins, plus Ravens win at least once
Ravens win both their games, plus Broncos win at least once, plus Patriots lose at least once

 

9-5 Baltimore Ravens – remaining games vs Giants, at Bengals
Have clinched a playoff spot; can be #3, #4, #5 or #6 seed

Can clinch the #3 seed and AFC title with any one of the following:

Two losses by the Pats, plus a win vs either Giants or Bengals
Two wins, plus one loss by Pats, plus one win by Broncos

Can clinch the #4 seed and AFC title with any one of the following:

Win vs Giants
Win at Bengals
Steelers beat Bengals, plus Steelers lose to Browns

Can clinch the #5 wildcard spot with:

Colts lose twice, to Chiefs and Texans

Can be eliminated from #3 seed with any one of the following:

Patriots win both of their games
Ravens lose both of their games
One win by the Pats, plus one loss by the Ravens
Pats win at least one game, plus Broncos lose twice

Can be eliminated from the #4 seed and AFC North title with:

Losses to the Giants and also Bengals, plus Bengals beat Steelers
Losses to the Giants and also Bengals, plus Steelers beat Browns

 

9-5 Indianapolis Colts – remaining games at Chiefs, vs Texans
Have not yet clinched a playoff spot; can be #5 or #6 seed

Can clinch the #5 wildcard spot with any of the following:

Win at Chiefs
Win vs Texans, plus Bengals loss to Steelers
Win vs Texans, plus Ravens loss to Giants
Win vs Texans, plus Bengals loss to Ravens
Bengals lose twice (to Steelers and Ravens), plus Steelers lose to Browns

Can clinch the #6 wildcard spot with any of the following:

Steelers loss to either the Bengals or the Browns
Bengals loss to Ravens
Colts beat Texans

Can be eliminated from the #5 wildcard spot with either of the following:

Colts lose both games, plus Bengals win both games
Colts lose both games, plus Ravens lose both games, plus Steelers beat Browns

 

8-6 Cincinnati Bengals – remaining games at Steelers, vs Ravens
Can be #4, #5 or #6 seed – or could miss playoffs

Can clinch #4 seed and AFC North title with all of the following:

Win vs Steelers, plus
Win vs Ravens, plus
Ravens loss to Giants

Can clinch #5 seed with all of the following:

Win vs Steelers, plus
Win vs Ravens, plus
Colts loss to Chiefs, plus
Colts loss to Texans

Can clinch #6 seed with either of the following:

Win vs Steelers, or
Win vs Ravens, plus Steelers loss to Browns

Can be eliminated from #4 seed with any of the following:

Loss to Steelers, or
Loss to Ravens, or
Ravens win vs Giants

Can be eliminated from #5 seed with any of the following:

Loss to Steelers, plus Colts win vs Chiefs
Loss to Steelers, plus Steelers win vs Browns
Loss to Steelers, plus Colts win vs Texans
Loss to Ravens, plus Colts win vs Chiefs
Loss to Ravens, plus Colts win vs Texans

Can be eliminated from #6 seed (and playoffs) with any of the following:

Losses to both the Steelers and Ravens
Loss to Steelers, plus Colts win vs Chiefs, plus Steelers win vs Browns
Loss to Steelers, plus Colts win vs Texans, plus Steelers win vs Browns

 

7-7 Pittsburgh Steelers – remaining games vs Bengals, vs Browns
Can be #4, #5 or #6 seed – or could miss playoffs

Can clinch #4 seed and AFC North title with all of the following:

Wins vs Bengals and Browns, plus Ravens lose both games

Can clinch #6 seed with any of the following:

Wins vs both the Bengals and also the Browns
Win vs Bengals, plus Bengals loss to Ravens, plus Dolphins loss to either Bills or Pats
Win vs Bengals, plus Bengals loss to Ravens, plus Jets wins vs both Chargers and Bills

Can be eliminated from #4 seed with either of the following:

Ravens win vs Giants
Ravens win vs Bengals

Can be eliminated from #5 wildcard spot with:

Loss to Browns

Can be eliminated from #6 wildcard spot with any of the following:

Loss to Bengals
Loss to Browns, plus Bengals win vs Ravens
Loss to Browns, plus Dolphins wins vs Bills and Pats, plus a Jets loss

 

6-8 Miami Dolphins – remaining games vs Bills, at Patriots
Have a miniscule chance of becoming the #6 seed

Can clinch the #6 seed with all of the following:

Wins vs Bills and also at Pats
Bengals losses to both Steelers and Ravens
Steelers win vs Bengals, plus loss to Browns
Jets loss either to Chargers or to Bills

 

 

Here are the current (Friday) Vegas odds for each of the games that could have an effect on the AFC playoff race:

Week 16
Pats -14½ at Jaguars
Texans -7½ vs Vikings
Broncos -13 vs Browns
Ravens +2½ vs Giants
Steelers -3½ vs Bengals
Colts -7 at Chiefs
Dolphins -4½ vs Bills
Jets -2½ vs Chargers

Week 17:
Pats -12 vs Dolphins
Colts -4 vs Texans
Broncos -16½ vs Chiefs
Bengals -3½ vs Ravens
Steelers -7 vs Browns
Jets +3 at Bills

In case you’re wondering why the Jets and Chargers are included when both of those teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, it has to do with tie-breakers for Miami. If the Dolphins end up in a tie with the Jets they are eliminated, so for the very slim chances that they have they need the Jets to lose at least one game.

 

 

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December 21, 1940:
Frank Zappa was born in Baltimore

December 21, 1943:
Guitarist Albert Lee was born in Leominster, England

December 21, 1946:
The Beach Boys’ Carl Wilson was born in Hawthorne, California

December 21, 1970:
Elvis Presley pulled up to the White House, requesting a meeting with Richard Nixon to discuss how he could help the President fight the war on drugs.

December 21, 1985:
Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band’s Born In The USA became the second longest lasting album ever on the Billboard Top 10; it stayed there for 79 weeks. The only album to ever stay in the Top 10 for a longer period of time was The Sound Of Music.

 

 

 

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Week 16 AFC Playoff Scenarios, 10.0 out of 10 based on 1 rating