Week Two: Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New England Patriots (1-0)
Sunday September 16 at 1:00 p.m. ET in Foxboro
TV: FOX ch 25 (limited national distribution), DTV channel 706
Announcers: Dick Stockton (play by play), John Lynch (analysis), Jennifer Hale (sideline)
Radio: 98.5 and the Patriots Radio Network; Sirius 91, XM 228 (internet 818)
Odds: Pats favored by 13½ (opened at 12½); over/under 48½ (opened at 48)
Franchise history: series tied at 6-6; Pats won last meeting in 2008, 47-7
Patriots offense versus Cardinals defense
Arizona does have a very good defensive line, with DE Calais Campbell, DT Dan Williams and DE Darnell Dockett up front. The Cardinals have won eight of their last ten games and it's been all because of their defense; those three are the engine that makes this unit click. They give Arizona a puncher's chance of winning this game if they can cause a couple of turnovers. The woes of the 2012 Pats offensive line are well documented but they performed much better at Tennessee than they had all preseason. This will be a good test for the Pats OL in preparation for next week's game at Baltimore, as Dockett and Campbell will be selling out to knock Brady down.
It will be important that the Pats avoid those one and two yard running gains. Arizona had the number one third down defense in the NFL last year with opponents converting on just 31.4 percent of those plays. The Cardinals also had the best third and long (ten yards or more) defense in 2011; opponents converted on just 7 of 71 chances last year (9.9%). Offensively the Pats converted 50% of their third down attempts last week, and ranked third in 2011 with a 45.3% successful third down conversion rate.
Wes Welker could be in for a big game Sunday against Arizona |
The best way to beat an aggressive defense is to effectively run the ball, and quick, short passes. For all the declarations that Wes Welker has been phased out of the Patriots offense, let's wait and see what happens Sunday. I'm expecting him to once again be Tom Brady's favorite target, with about nine or ten receptions.
Another beneficiary of an aggressive defense could be the tight ends. Adrian Wilson is one of the best safeties in the NFL and Kerry Rhodes is adequate. They certainly won't shut down Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez but they should do better than most defenses in limiting them. Patrick Peterson is very good at one corner and William Gay is not bad as a number two CB.
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Cardinals offense versus Pats defense
Arizona's offensive line will struggle to contain Chandler Jones |
Larry Fitzgerald will be the main point of emphasis for the Patriots defense, and deservedly so. Despite being the only legitimate offensive threat on the team and with subpar quarterbacks throwing him the ball, Fitzgerald still had 1,411 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns last year. Keep an eye on WR Andre Roberts; the third-year pro from Citadel benefited greatly from all the attention defenses gave to Fitzgerald last year, totalling 51 receptions for 586 yards. Along with Early Doucet (54 receptions, 689 yards) the Cardinals have some quality receivers that will be a challenge for the Patriots pass defense. While Kevin Kolb does not get much respect from most NFL fans, let's not forget that he came off the bench last week and led the Cardinals to a game-winning drive.
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Special Teams
I am going to assume that the person who said this saw Mesko had a 38.5 yard average on his punts in the box score. They probably also noticed the long of 51 and concluded that the rest of his punts stunk, all shanks. This a great example of coming to a lousy conclusion based on surface scratching stats rather then based on what you actually saw transpire.
Zoltan Mesko will look to keep Patrick Peterson from having a chance to return any punts |
I cannot fathom how anyone who actually watched the game can characterize that as Mesko having a bad day. Look, I find stats to be fun and interesting - but let's be careful about jumping to conclusions based solely on raw data.
The fact that Mesko was able to punt the ball four times with zero returns is very important to note in this game, because the Cardinals' Patrick Peterson is dangerous in this facet of the game; he returned four punts for touchdowns last year. I will be more than happy if Mesko replicates his 'bad game' on Sunday.
The Cardinals not only want, but need a big play on special teams. I don't believe Zoltan Mesko is going to give Patrick Peterson that opportunity. As for kickoffs, look for Stephen Gostkowski to limit LaRod Stephens-Howling's chances as well, booting the ball out of the end zone.
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Intangibles, Trends, Trivia and other Factoids
One more thing to add on to that punting rant: last week the Cardinals allowed Seattle an average drive start of the 37.6 yard line, which was third worst for the week. Last year their opponents average starting field position was the 31.0 yard line, which was next to last. The Pats on the other hand forced opponents to start on average on the 24.5 yard line last year (2nd best), and 17.5 yard line last week (best of the week). Don't be surprised if field position is a big factor in the Pats favor on Sunday.
Arizona is just 3-13 on the road since Kurt Warner retired; two of those three wins were against the lowly Rams.
The Patriots are 67-13 in regular season games since Gillette Stadium opened in 2002; that .838 winning percentage is best in the NFL in that time period.
The Patriots have won each of the last five meetings between these two clubs. Since they changed their name from the Phoenix Cardinals to the Arizona Cardinals the Pats are 4-0, winning by an aggregate score of 128 to 22.
Larry Fitzgerald needs three catches to total 700 receptions in his career; he will become the youngest player in NFL history to achieve that mark.
With a win by the Patriots Bill Belichick will pass Chuck Knox for ninth place on the list of all time winningest NFL coaches. Belichick currently has 193 (176 regular season and 17 playoff) wins. Next up is Dan Reeves with 201.
Troy Brown is being inducted in to the Patriots Hall of Fame Saturday and will be honored at the game on Sunday. Brown had 557 receptions and 31 touchdowns with the Patriots. Ironically those are the identical stats that Wes Welker currently has with the Pats. With his next catch Welker sets a team record for receptions; his next touchdown catch will put him in seventh place in franchise history for touchdown receptions.
Close in the rearview mirror is Rob Gronkowski, who already has 28 touchdown receptions in his career. His next TD catch will put him in sole possession of ninth place on that list, breaking the current tie he has with another tight end, Russ Francis.
Prediction: The Cardinals have a mediocre quarterback behind an inconsistent offensive line and no running game to help him out. Their defensive line (Darnell Dockett, Dan Williams, and Calais Campbell) is very good though, as is safety Adrian Wilson; the Pats offensive line will have its hands full. The New England offense will still be able to win enough battles to score enough points to win; even with Larry Fitzgerald the Arizona offense won't be able to keep up.
Offensive player of the game: Wes Welker
Defensive player of the game: Chandler Jones
Patriots 31, Arizona 13
September 15, 1975: Pink Floyd released their ninth studio album, Wish You Were Here.
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